The interconnectedness of life makes it difficult to isolate variables or draw simple cause-effect conclusions. Yet, we humans crave simple explanations for complex phenomena. This cognitive bias can often lead to bad advice given out of good faith.

Consider these problems with advice:

1. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results: People who've benefited from certain decisions (like buying a house that has greatly appreciated) eagerly advise others to do the same. Circumstances change, and what worked before may not work again.

2. Probability isn't destiny: High-probability bets can fail, and low-probability ones can succeed. Advising someone to bet on a single number in roulette (2.63% chance of success) would be considered amazing advice if it hit—but that doesn't make it wise.

3. Advice comes from people that are not you: Advice comes from people with different genetics, experiences, and perspectives. Even empathetic listeners can't fully grasp what it is like to be you and likely would give advice indexed to their own needs.

4. Following advice can be disempowering: Acting on someone else's advice rather than your own judgment is like doing chores that someone else told you to do. It robs you of ownership and generally diminishes the experience.

Instead of blindly following counsel, think of advice like a self-serve toppings bar at an ice cream shop. You wouldn't let someone choose your toppings for you, so why let them direct your life? Pick the pieces that you want because it's your ice cream.

Ultimately, you alone are accountable for your outcomes. While it's valuable to consider others' insights, they should only inform—not dictate—your decisions. Develop your own thesis, incorporating external advice judiciously rather than following it blindly.